Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
